2017 Golden Globes Preview and Predictions

The Golden Globes are a bit ridiculous from time to time, but I love it. It is a great way to kick off the rest of awards season, and it is the one circuit that actually recognizes achievement in comedy. Box office hits are theoretically more in play, but that rarely actually happens. They love foreign films, movie stars, and TV shows in their first season. Check out what the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s nomination list could look like when they are announced on December 12^th.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE

1. Millie Bobby Brown – Stranger Things

2. Maura Tierney – The Affair

3. Constance Zimmer – UnREAL

4. Emilia Clarke – Game of Thrones
5. Lena Headey – Game of Thrones

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE

1. Louie Anderson – Baskets

2. Sterling K. Brown – The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

3. Kit Harrington – Game of Thrones

4. John Lithgow – The Crown

5. Hugh Laurie – The Night Manager

BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

1. Sarah Paulson – The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

2. Kerry Washington – Confirmation

3. Felicity Huffman – American Crime

4. Riley Keough – The Girlfriend Experience
5. Shirley MacLaine – Wild Oats

BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

1. Courtney B. Vance - The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

2. Riz Ahmed – The Night Of

3. Tom Hiddleston – The Night Manager

4. Bryan Cranston – All the Way
5. James Franco – 12.22.63

BEST MINISERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE

1. The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

2. The Night Of

3. The Night Manager

4. All the Way
5. American Crime

BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Sarah Jessica Parker – Divorce

2. Issa Rae – Insecure

3. Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep

4. Ellie Kemper – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
5. Kristen Bell – The Good Place

BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Donald Glover – Atlanta

2. Jeffrey Tambor – Transparent

3. Anthony Anderson – Black-ish

4. Gael Garcia Bernal – Mozart in the Jungle
5. Thomas Haden Church – Divorce

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Atlanta

2. Divorce

3. Veep

4. Mozart in the Jungle
5. Silicon Valley

BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Evan Rachel Wood – Westworld

2. Winona Ryder – Stranger Things

3. Claire Foy – The Crown

4. Robin Wright – House of Cards
5. Viola Davis – How to Get Away with Murder

BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Rami Malek – Mr. Robot

2. Kiefer Sutherland – Designated Survivor

3. Wagner Moura – Narcos

4. Paul Giamatti – Billions
5. Kevin Spacey – House of Cards

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Stranger Things

2. Game of Thrones

3. House of Cards

4. The Crown
5. Westworld

The only ones of the TV nominations that I am really confident in are the People vs. O.J. Simpson noms in all relevant categories and Paul Giamatti for Billions. I mean, Giamatti won for freaking Barney’s Version and got an inexplicable nod for Too Big to Fail. He has his own TV show now…lock! Anyway, on to the predictions I actually stand a chance at getting right…

BEST ANIMATED FILM

1. Moana

2. Kubo and the Two Strings

3. Sing

4. Zootopia
5. Finding Dory

Explanation: There aren’t too many options in this category. The foreign animated films are not as high profile as they typically are, and these big budget studio animated movies have all been very well received. They are gaga for Disney and Pixar.

BEST FOREIGN FILM

1. Elle

2. Toni Erdmann

3. Neruda

4. Julieta
5. The Salesman

Explanation: The foreign film category at the Globes usually looks nothing like the Academy’s picks. A movie like Elle is much more likely to score points with the HFPA than bring home Oscar gold. They also cannot resist the big name foreign directors, so Pedro Almodovar should have no problem securing at least a nomination for Julieta.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls

2. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream” – La La Land

3. “A Letter to the Free” – 13^th

4.  “The Great Beyond” – Sausage Party
5. “City of Stars” – La La Land

Explanation: The precedent really hasn’t been set this year for which songs will be heralded by all of the awards circuits, but predicting animated films, a musical, and a documentary are about as solid of choices as any. The Trolls song will of course award Justin Timberlake, which I’m not sure the Globes can resist.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Light Between Oceans – Alexandre Desplat

2. The BFG – John Williams

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – Michael Giacchino

4. Arrival – Johann Johansson
5. Finding Dory – Thomas Newman

Explanation: The Globes are a little weird with their original scores. They love nominating the biggest names in the business, but they somehow end up giving the award to movies like All Is Lost or The Painted Veil, which have no chance at Oscar noms. The Light Between Oceans, which isn’t even necessarily Desplat’s most popular score of the year (Florence Foster Jenkins), seems like the kind of eventual winner that we could end up with.

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

1. La La Land – Damien Chazelle

2. Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan

3. Moonlight – Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney

4. Nocturnal Animals – Tom Ford
5. Loving – Jeff Nichols

Explanation: You would think with only one screenplay category that these would pretty much be the favorites to win the Best Picture categories, but that is not always the case. However, this year the favorites happen to be really creative and original scripts, so this category could prove to be more traditional. Watch out for some surprise here. They have no shame in nominating an out-of-nowhere comedy in this category, such as The American President and It’s Complicated.

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

1. Martin Scorsese – Silence

2. Damien Chazelle – La La Land

3. Denzel Washington – Fences

4. Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
5. Kenneth Longergan – Manchester by the Sea

Explanation: The HFPA cannot resist Scorsese. Even his lesser work shows up at the Globes in a big way. Denzel Washington getting nominated in this distinguished group of directors might raise eyebrows, but they love actors directing movies as well. Angelina Jolie’s debut film In the Land of Blood and Honey was even nominated for Best Foreign Film, and Washington’s The Great Debaters scored a Best Picture nom.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Ben Affleck – Live By Night

Woody Allen – Café Society

Clint Eastwood – Sully

Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

Martin Scorsese – Silence

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

1. Viola Davis – Fences

2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

3. Nicole Kidman – Lion

4. Shailene Woodley – Snowden
5. Lupita Nyong’o – Queen of Katwe

Explanation: The supporting categories have yielded some interesting nominations over the years. One year sticks out where Sarah Jessica Parker and Shirley MacLaine were nominated for the scarcely seen The Family Stone and In Her Shoes. However, this year there are heavyweights like Nicole Kidman and Viola Davis in the running. I suspect that Davis won’t win for her TV show, so they will award her here instead and start her eventual Oscar run. Woodley would be a little oddball, but she has been nominated here in the past, and Oliver Stone movies are typically well received by the HFPA.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Nicole Kidman – Lion

Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky

Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Kate Winslet – Collateral Beauty

Shailene Woodley – Snowden

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

1. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

2. Liam Neeson – Silence

3. Aaron Eckhart – Sully

4. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
5. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

Explanation: This was a tough category to predict. There are usually some strange choices, but the big stars have memorable roles, so it might look a bit more like the Academy’s lineup than we have come accustomed to. Bridges is the frontrunner after taking the National Board of Review. It is classic Bridges and a shoo-in Oscar nominee. Eckhart is sort of a stab; I feel like that movie probably played well with this voting body. It is going to be between Bridges and Neeson. It all depends on how many people see Silence before the voting window ends.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

George Clooney – Hail, Caesar!

Robert De Niro – Hands of Stone

Chris Pratt – The Magnificent Seven

Channing Tatum – Hail, Caesar!

Vince Vaughn – Hacksaw Ridge

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

2. Emma Stone – La La Land

3. Annette Bening – 20^th Century Women

4. Sally Field – Hello, My Name Is Doris
5. Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen

Explanation: This is a really powerful group of actresses. It would only be fitting for Stone to be in the same category as Steinfeld, when one of the closest relatives to The Edge of Seventeen was the Golden Globe nominated Easy A. Streep always wins at the Globes, especially in this category.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Tina Fey – Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Melissa McCarthy - Ghostbusters

Kristen Stewart – Café Society

Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Renee Zellweger – Bridget Jones’s Baby

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Ryan Gosling – La La Land

2. Colin Farrell – The Lobster

3. Warren Beatty – Rules Don’t Apply

4. Robert De Niro – The Comedian
5. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

Explanation: Mortensen has had success with the HFPA in the past. The rest of this category seems pretty straightforward for the Globes. I was tempted to double nom Ryan Gosling with The Nice Guys sliding in there, but I just couldn’t justify taking one of these beloved superstars out of it. If The Nice Guys does make an appearance, I suspect it will pull an In Bruges and get both actors in.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Russell Crowe – The Nice Guys

Ryan Gosling – The Nice Guys

Jonah Hill – War Dogs

Michael Keaton – The Founder

Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool

BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. La La Land

2. 20^th Century Women

3. Hail, Caesar!

4. Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Sing Street

Explanation: There are a lot of serious contenders for 2^nd place in this category. Some that were not mentioned include The Nice Guys, The Founder, Café Society, Everybody Wants Some!!, and even something off-the-wall like Elvis & Nixon. Nothing is beating La La Land, though. It is musical nostalgia with star power. It is a bigger favorite than Lamar Jackson is for the Heisman.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Café Society

Deadpool

Ghostbusters

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Natalie Portman – Jackie

2. Ruth Negga – Loving

3. Amy Adams – Arrival

4. Isabelle Huppert – Elle
5. Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers

Explanation: This is an interesting category. There are a host of contenders on the outside who can sneak in there over any of the five. Those include Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train, Jessica Chastain for Miss Sloane, and dark horse Rebecca Hall for Christine. Natalie Portman seems like a typical winner for this category. Adams will get nominated for Arrival or Nocturnal Animals (or both?). We’ll see how much the awards really love J-Law this awards season. If she gets nominated for that movie, then she really is the next Streep.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Amy Adams – Arrival

Marion Cotillard – Allied

Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures

Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers

Natalie Portman – Jane Got a Gun

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

2. Denzel Washington – Fences

3. Will Smith – Collateral Beauty

4. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
5. Joel Edgerton – Loving

Explanation: This could be an absolutely star-studded category if it holds to form. Maybe I am being facetious to suggest that Garfield could get nominated for Hacksaw Ridge over Silence, but if not for a relatively weak year in 2006, that would have definitely been the case for Leo (which was only reaffirmed by the Oscars). Affleck is this year’s Bree Larson, it appears. He should sweep his way all the way to the Academy Awards.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Tom Hanks – Sully

Matthew McConaughey – Gold

Brad Pitt – Allied

Chris Pratt – Passengers

Will Smith – Collateral Beauty

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Silence

2. Manchester by the Sea

3. Moonlight

4. Nocturnal Animals
5. Arrival

Explanation: Scorsese will likely reign again at the Globes. This category is never as easy as expected. There’s always an Eastern Promises or an About Schmidt in the mix. Nocturnal Animals could be that Cronenberg-style inclusion. The rest seem like safe bets, combining great indie cinema and an intelligent box office hit. We’ll see how this shapes up. Rarely are the contenders not eventual Oscar Best Picture nominees.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

The Birth of a Nation

Collateral Beauty

Hacksaw Ridge

Passengers

Patriots Day

 

So, there are my illustrious (and likely largely incorrect) Golden Globes predictions! Let me know if I had any serious omissions in the comments.