Tuesday, September 15, 2015

2016 Oscar Predictions: September

At last, here are my updated Oscar predictions! A lot has happened since my first predictions in February. Some movies have failed, some have surprised, and some have been pushed to 2016 and out of contention. A few trailers have burst onto the scene and immediately gotten the attention of the major festivals and audiences alike. It will be an interesting Oscar season. I love this time of year!
Notable release date casualties: Silence, Snowden, Knight of Cups, Tulip Fever, Demolition, Midnight Special, Untitled Howard Hughes Project, That’s What I’m Talking About Everybody Wants Some, Triple Nine, Bleed for This

I will also leave out films like Miles Ahead, Icon The Program, and The Light Between Oceans, which look as if they will probably have the same fate as the abovementioned films.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Steve Jobs – Aaron Sorkin – Sorkin might be the best screenwriter in the world, and his script appears to be furious and relevant. When he decides to write a movie, he gets nominated.
2. Beasts of No Nation – Cary Fukunaga – The movie is one of the frontrunners in several categories, but winning screenplay over some flashier writing might be a bit difficult for the Netflix original movie.
3. Carol – Phyllis Nagy – Todd Haynes didn’t write, so it might be a tougher sell than Far from Heaven, but all early indications are that this is sumptuous and brilliant.
4.  Trumbo – John McNamara – Whenever a film takes aim at Hollywood, it is always a good thing for Oscar contention. Blacklisting has rarely been told well in film, so who better than Jay Roach to bring this lightning screenplay to life?
5. The Danish Girl – Lucina Coxon – The Tom Hooper film is getting raves from everywhere, and with that subject matter, it appears to be the perfect time for it to come out. Coxon is an unproven writer, but that shouldn’t matter for the Oscar juggernaut.
Others in contention
6.  Truth – James Vanderbilt – He only really has one decent screenplay in Zodiac, but this film about Dan Rather appears to have the type of sharp writing to warrant Oscar attention.
7. The Revenant – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Mark L. Smith – The movie is going to be a big hit, but unless it is unanimous, a nomination in this category will prove difficult.
8. Brooklyn – Nick Hornby – The raves for this movie are coming in. Hornby is always popular, so watch out for this one if it gets enough of an American theatrical run.
9. Our Brand is Crisis – Peter Straughan – The previous nominee has a great political topic to chew on and a cast to take it all the way to the Oscars.
10.  The Secret in Their Eyes – Billy Ray – He is one of the more popular writers out there, and adapting the smash hit foreign Oscar winner seems like a perfect fit.
11. Black Mass – Jez Butterworth, Mark Mallouk – The movie is getting a lot of good word, but other than Depp, this might be the film’s peak. Scott Cooper has yet to validate the talent he showed with Crazy Heart.
12. Concussion – Peter Landesman – Everyone keeps wanting Landesman to become the next big thing, but it isn’t working. The same goes for John Wells. If this movie is good enough, then maybe a screenplay nomination will come his way and finally validate his hype.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Spotlight - Thomas McCarthy, Josh Singer – McCarthy is one of the most popular filmmakers around, and this is his best shot yet at winning big at the Oscars. His subject matter is controversial and timely, which always helps.
2. Joy – David O. Russell, Annie Mumolo – Maybe Russell will never win, but he will continue stacking up nominations like Billy Wilder. Working with the Oscar-nominated writer of Bridesmaids is intriguing to say the least.
3. The Hateful Eight – Quentin Tarantino – I am pretty confident that he will be nominated, but unless he can once again outdo himself, then he might just be an also-ran.
4. Son of Saul – Laszlo Nemes, Clara Royer – The Holocaust film has garnered wide attention and a scheduled legitimate US release date. This is the foreign film that will sweep everyone off their feet.
5. Inside Out – Pete Docter, Bob Petersen – Pixar has returned to form, and if this movie is not nominated in this category, then I don’t know what is going on. It is as well-written of a film as we have seen in years. It needs a strong video release/streaming campaign.
Others in contention
6. Bridge of Spies – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Matt Charman – The film had a popular trailer, but something about it seemed a bit phony to me. The Coens being on the job is cool, but they direct their best scripts.
7. Sicario – Taylor Sheridan – This thriller is getting a lot of run commercially, which is promising. The cast is awesome. These types of movies come out a lot, and since he is a first time writer, I am leaving it just on the outside.
8. The Good Dinosaur – Enrico Casarosa, Bob Petersen – We are not entirely sure about the quality of the film yet, but judging by the trailer, it might even eclipse Inside Out.
9. Youth – Paolo Sorrentino – The Academy loved The Great Beauty, so Sorrentino’s American film needs to be considered as a major contender. It looks quirky, but that works in this category.
10. Burnt – Steven Knight, Michael Kalesniko – Knight is a past nominee, and this film starring Bradley Cooper sounds like the type of redemption story that can easily win over the conservative Oscar voters.
11. Crimson Peak – Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robinson – Del Toro can complete the Mexican director trifecta if his film wins big, but it is a horror-type film, so that is unlikely. The Pan’s Labyrinth filmmaker still deserves our due attention.
12. Trainwreck – Amy Schumer – The screenplay is brilliant, hip, and current. The Academy loves strong female characters. It is possible, but it needs to regain some steam in the coming months.
13.  Suffragette – Abi Morgan – Morgan is a talented writer, and making a film about the feminist movement is definitely a way to get attention from award circuits.


BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Rooney Mara – Carol She won at Cannes, which firmly puts her in competition at the American awards. She does such good work every year. This might be her time.
2. Ellen Page – Freeheld Is it time for a validation nomination for Page? She is clearly playing a role that is personal, so she might be at her best.
3. Helena Bonham Carter – Suffragette She appears to be a standout in the film. I think it will be an actor showcase, so expect a couple of the women to get in.
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight She has embarrassingly never been nominated by the Academy. Playing in a Tarantino film should finally give her that vehicle to put her over the top.
5. Jane Fonda – Youth She hasn’t been nominated since 1986. Playing aside such esteemed veterans as Michael Caine and Harvey Keitel should definitely give her the best role she has had in decades.
Others in contention
6. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs It is a bit strange to think that the annual nominee hasn’t been invited back in 7 years, but then again she taking other types of roles in that time. It would not surprise me at all if she steals this movie.
7. Julie Walters – Brooklyn She will get a lot of British backing heading up to the announcement of the nominations, but I am almost in a “wait and see” with this movie.
8. Rachel McAdams – Spotlight She has been doing the best work of her career recently, and she kills it in these types of roles. Is this finally her ticket?
9. Helen Mirren – Trumbo She has a juicy role as a gossip columnist in the true story. She is always an Academy favorite.
10. Diane Lane – Trumbo She gets her best role in ages as Dalton Trumbo’s wife. Bryan Cranston will bring out the best in the underrated actress.
11. Diane Ladd – Joy She hasn’t been invited back in 24 years, but then again, she hasn’t really done a whole lot of anything in that time. This would be a cool comeback story, and we all know what the Academy thinks of David O. Russell’s actors.
12. Meryl Streep – Suffragette She is nominated whenever she has a relevant film, and depending on the size of her role, this might be her best shot this year.
13. Melanie Laurent – By the Sea Angelina Jolie’s romantic drama gathered a great cast, and this role might be one of my most anticipated in 2015. Laurent can do wonders with the right direction.
14. Naomi Watts – About Ray She is playing the mother of a girl who wants to become a boy, so we know the emotional scenes we will get to see from Watts.
15. Jessica Chastain – Crimson Peak Chastain has developed a reputation of being one of the most reliable actresses out there, and being in a Guillermo del Toro film has my attention at least.


BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation Elba has yet to break through in film, but this role seems to be right in his wheelhouse. It is also one of the frontrunners, so that always helps.
2. Harvey Keitel – Youth He has only been nominated once for Bugsy, so he would be welcomed back. He so rarely gets critical roles like this.
3. Michael Keaton – Spotlight He officially is back. Playing in this movie should easily get him a second consecutive nomination and another shot at taking home gold.
4. Michael Stuhlbarg – Trumbo He is not being hyped by most, but being cast as Edward G. Robinson is as interesting and perfect as any 2015 casting.
5. Samuel L. Jackson – The Hateful Eight I would love if he could finally get back to the Oscars. QT always writes Jackson’s best roles, so we will see how this pans out.
Others in contention
6. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies He is playing the antagonist Soviet spy in Spielberg’s drama, which seems as juicy of a role as any. Could he be 2015’s Christoph Waltz?
7. Tom Hardy – The Revenant Hardy has been knocking on Oscar’s door for a few years now, so being in Academy-favorite Inarritu’s film puts him squarely in the race.
8. Seth Rogen – Steve Jobs His part in the trailer was not overly impressive, but he must have blown everyone away to get cast in this crucial role. I am hopeful that he can finally shed his undeserved image of being one-dimensional and secure a nomination.
9. Bradley Cooper – Joy Cooper has been nominated three years in a row, and this could easily make it four, all but one being for Russell.
10. Benicio Del Toro – Sicario Del Toro is one of the best actors in the world, and this kind of role is what he usually owns, but the film is never up to his level. Sicario should be different.
11. Robert De Niro – Joy David O. Russell brought De Niro back, and it probably won’t be all that difficult to keep him here.
12. Michael Shannon – 99 Homes I tried to avoid this movie after overhyping it last year before it got delayed, but this role is just so intriguing. I can’t wait until this actually comes out.
13. Liev Schreiber – Pawn Sacrifice After doing a crash course on Bobby Fischer, I cannot think of a more easy casting decision than Schreiber as his Russian rival.
14. Jason Segel – The End of the Tour Segel certainly has talent. Playing George Foster Wallace is as strange and brilliant of a casting choice as possible. I hope for the best.
15. Jason Mitchell – Straight Outta Compton He received “best in show” reviews as Eazy-E in the monster box office hit. If the film is remembered in December, watch out for this surprise nomination.
16. Jeff Daniels – Steve Jobs Daniels is sensational with Sorkin’s words in The Newsroom, so I expect his part to stand out in Boyle’s film.


BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl She has had one unbelievable year. Her performance appears to be beautiful in Tom Hooper’s drama. The Academy loves the female companion roles to the dominant male characters.
2. Cate Blanchett – Carol She easily could take her third Oscar with this film. She will wind up with more Oscars than Katherine Hepburn. Todd Haynes and Cate Blanchett were made for each other.
3. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy She will become the next in line of the perennial nominees, and this is one of those roles that if she kills it, she will coast to an Oscar.
4. Carey Mulligan – Suffragette She has unfortunately only been nominated once, so with this feminist film and her acclaimed work in Far from the Madding Crowd, she should be able to get invited back.
5. Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash I had to include her somewhere. She needs to get the Golden Globe nomination first, then this will come.
Others in contention
6. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn She has been close to getting her second career nomination for a while, and while this film looks so promising for her, I am not quite ready to put her up with that group just yet.
7. Brie Larson – Room Her performance has gotten raves. She has been doing some tremendous work recently, and this type of motherly emotional role should play well with voters.
8. Lily Tomlin – Grandma These types of road comedies sometimes really work well for the actors. She hasn’t been nominated since 1975.
9. Cate Blanchett – Truth This role has almost no chance at beating out her role in Carol, but it is worth mentioning if they somehow convince the Academy that she is supporting in the Haynes film. She plays opposite Robert Redford, which will be a really interesting battle.
10. Sandra Bullock – Our Brand is Crisis She seemed to really be commanding in the trailer. When she gets a real role, the voters usually flock to her support.
11. Emily Blunt – Sicario She should be a nominee already. These types of badass roles are tough to pull off, and she does it in her sleep. This might be a quality enough movie to finally get her attention for doing it.
12. Marion Cotillard – Macbeth The trailer looked unbelievable. Is there a better choice for Lady Macbeth than Cotillard? I think not. If the movie is distributed enough, it will be hard to not vote for her.
13. Julianne Moore – Freeheld She just won, but she is still one of the most liked actresses out there. She is going to have a host of emotional scenes with Page, so maybe they both get in?
14. Angelina Jolie – By the Sea She isn’t the most popular actress, but this is the first time she is directing herself. She has certainly proved to be talented behind the camera and great with her actors. Can she direct herself to a nomination? It is rare, but it could happen.


BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl Winning two Oscars in a row is really rare, but how can you bet against him? Tom Hooper, transgender, physical transformation, British…check, check, check, check.
2. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs Fassbender needs to win one here pretty soon. Maybe his role as Steve Jobs will help him bring it home. He certainly appears to be game by the trailers and early reviews.
3. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo He has been doing some nice film work since he got done with Breaking Bad. The film is one of the ones to beat in the main categories, and from the trailer, he appears to have stepped right out of the 1940s.
4. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant He looks to really be going for it in Inarritu’s film. He will win one eventually, I hope.
5. Bradley Cooper – Burnt He has the redemption role, but first he gets to be a jerk and a drug addict. Sounds like another Cooper nomination to me.
Others in contention
6. Abraham Attah – Beasts of No Nation Children are not nominated in this category very often, but being in the frontrunning film puts him in the race.
7. Robert Redford – Truth He is playing Dan Rather, which sounds like a money role for the underrated actor who hasn’t been nominated in 42 years.
8. Michael Caine – YouthCaine is always in contention when he gets a real role. If he gets nominated here, then that will be six decades in a row with a nom. That has never been done.
9. Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies Hanks has somewhat lost his luster after being snubbed for Captain Phillips. He seems to be too subtle here for a nomination, but who knows…
10. Johnny Depp – Black Mass Depp is getting raves for his physical transformation and creepy scene in the trailer. I am not ready to anoint this film yet, but I will happily be proven wrong.
11. Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight I am not really sure who is lead or if there is one, but Ruffalo is one of the most popular guys around. If the movie hits big, he will be taking them there.
12. Jake Gyllenhaal – Southpaw He has had an incredible run the past few years, but sadly it seems like he is going to have to keep waiting for his second nomination with Demolition getting pushed to 2016.
13. Will Smith – Concussion Smith is beloved when he has a real role. The film about concussions in professional football seems like a good enough topic, and he is playing with an accent. Is that enough?
14. Brad Pitt – By the Sea Pitt playing opposite Jolie in Jolie’s film? Yes.
15. Michael B. Jordan – Creed Coogler directed Jordan to the best performance of 2013, and the trailer for Creed was incredible. Is it serious enough to get real attention?
16. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – The Walk JGL has put in some nice work in recent years. The movie seems to be a bit too dry compared to the thrill that was Man on Wire, but we will have to wait and see.


BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Cary Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation After True Detective, we all knew that he was riding high. How careful was he with his next feature film? It looks astounding.
2. Tom Hooper – The Danish Girl Hooper just won in 2010, so maybe they will want to wait before giving him another. The film looks gorgeous, though.
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – The Revenant I really doubt that this film can really win the big awards after Birdman swept last year, but the Academy has always loved him. His new film looks furious and intense.
4. Thomas McCarthy – Spotlight McCarthy has had a few acclaimed films that just missed out on Oscar nominations. This is his most serious film to date and one that needs our attention.
5. Danny Boyle – Steve Jobs Boyle always leaves his mark in his directing jobs, but this appears to be more condensed. It worked for Fincher with The Social Network. He could be the frontrunner if it is as good as it can be.
Others in contention
6. Jay Roach – Trumbo It might be a tough sell for the director of Meet the Parents and Austin Powers to be an Oscar nominee, but he also did Game Change and Recount. The Hollywood subject is perfect for his brand of satire.
7. Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight Tarantino is the ultimate wild card in this category. If his film is good enough, he could win. The Academy loves throwbacks and westerns.
8. David O. Russell – Joy I am going to put him outside the top five just because it gets a little tiresome always putting him in. He is getting nominated, though.
9. Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies How much does the Academy still love him? Lincoln seemed like a shoo-in, but he went home empty-handed. He missed out on a Best Director nom for War Horse. Maybe I am underselling the potential of this film, but I just fear that it is going to underwhelm.
10. Todd Haynes – Carol Haynes always is an interesting case. He somehow got snubbed back in 2002 for Far from Heaven. His films are always visually impressive. Maybe he is just too lavish for their taste.
11. Ron Howard – In the Heart of the Sea Howard is always a popular choice when he makes a good film. Putting the film squarely in Oscar season helped the film’s cause and hype.
12. Pete Docter – Inside Out If there is ever an animated film director that gets in, it would be for a movie like this. It won’t happen, but it is worth discussing.
13. Denis Villeneuve – Sicario After Incendies and Prisoners, Villeneuve is riding high. This film is getting the buzz to really take over the race in early October.


BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)
1. Beasts of No Nation (Cary Fukunaga) – Is the Academy ready (or will they ever be ready) to give a Netflix original streaming movie the top prize? We will find out this year…
2. Trumbo (Jay Roach) – If they aren’t then they will likely give it to the film that puts Hollywood in the crosshairs.
3. Steve Jobs (Danny Boyle) – The film seems pretty safe for a nomination, but it needs to really have something bigger to offer to win. I think it might.
4. Spotlight (Thomas McCarthy) – If the Academy wants to go with something really serious and controversial, this is their choice.
5. The Danish Girl (Tom Hooper) – If the Academy is in a more British and character-driven piece, then Hooper’s film will get the votes.
6. The Revenant (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) – If the Academy really doesn’t care about awards overkill and really wants to give Leo some love, then The Revenant might have a real chance at winning.
7. The Hateful Eight (Quentin Tarantino) – I can’t actually see this film winning Best Picture, but a nomination seems pretty safe if the movie is up to QT’s standards.
8. Inside Out (Pete Docter) – If the Academy has a heart, then this will be nominated. If they have a brain, they will consider it for the win.
9. Joy (David O. Russell) – If the Academy finally wants to give Russell a win, then this will make the list and get nominated everywhere else.
10. Bridge of Spies (Steven Spielberg) – Who am I kidding, this is totally getting nominated, isn’t it?
Others in contention
11. Carol (Todd Haynes) – This seems like more of a character drama than a Best Picture contender, but they have gotten in before. Haynes has never gotten one of his films this far, however.
12. Our Brand is Crisis (David Gordon Green) – Can David Gordon Green become an Oscar nominee? His films have been good enough on occasion. This is his best shot yet.
13. Sicario (Denis Villeneuve) – If the movie has a big box office and strong reviews, I think that this could be a dark horse all throughout awards season.
14. In the Heart of the Sea (Ron Howard) – Ron Howard films are an easy sell. These types of big action pieces haven’t really been their thing for about a decade, but this could change that.
15. Brooklyn (John Crowley) – Romantic dramas like this aren’t always treated well, but I wouldn’t count out a film with this kind of pedigree.
16. Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens (JJ Abrams) – This is one of the big unknowns in the race. The original was of course nominated everywhere, but all of the other episodes have been overlooked. If it is good enough and explodes at the box office the way we all anticipate, then…maybe? We can only hope.
17. The Good Dinosaur (Peter Sohn) – I am not going to put this completely out of contention, even though it has an uphill climb to even be the best Pixar film in 2015. However, the director of the best animated short I can remember in Partly Cloudy has his debut film coming out. It has to be incredible.
18. Straight Outta Compton (F. Gary Gray) – The box office was greater than anyone could have imagined. The subject is timely and effectively told. The acting is tremendous. Can it snag the final spot? I wouldn’t be entirely surprised, but I would be impressed.


That’s all I got! Surprises? Overlooks? Comments? Let me know. I’d love to discuss.


4 comments:

  1. As always, fantastic read. Truly, the '61 Cheval Blanc of Oscar preview articles.

    1. There is only one Best Picture shoo-in, and that is "Trumbo." My god. That preview just screams "Best Picture nominee." Jay Roach directing may hurt it a little bit, and you're absolutely right to predict he might be on the outside looking in. But Cranston is a lock, the screenplay's a lock, and I like at least one of those Supporting Actress nominees.

    2. "Beasts of No Nation" feels like "A Most Violent Year" -- it will get a lot of critical attention, but I can see the Academy snubbing it. The Academy is old white men who hate alternative distribution formats. They are scared of Netflix. They are scared that theaters are dying. They want to reassert the primacy of movie theaters, which is why they'll lean on "Trumbo" and "Hateful Eight" over any film that, even if superior, eschews traditional releasing.

    3. I have my doubts about "Steve Jobs" too. I don't know -- is it that it looks too much like "Social Network?" Is it that this will now be the third film about Steve Jobs in the last two years? Is it that Boyle has a wildly erratic track record? Is it that people are tired of Aaron Sorkin? Is is that the movie looks a little silly in its overdramaticized rendition of events in Jobs' life? I don't know. In the immortal words of Jack, "something about it still seems fishy."

    4. "The Danish Girl" also feels pretty close to a lock for Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and Screenplay nominations. Could it be the first film since "Silence of the Lambs" to sweep the Big Five? It's certainly the most realistic film to do that since "American Beauty." If Caitlyn Jenner is presenting the Best Picture award, we'll have our answer.

    5. Check that, I'll just be ballsy and predict "The Danish Girl" to sweep the top five. This film screams Academy Awards, and at least it will be nice to see my future wife, Alicia Saltz-Vikander, take home an Oscar.

    6. I can't really see Meryl get a nomination for "Ricki and the Flash." She's great in it, but come on. I like the chances of Emily Blunt sneaking in there for the "2004 Hilary Swank/2012 Jessica Chastain/2013 Sandra Bullock" type kickass woman nomination. As a side note, "Sicario" looks absolutely awesome is the frontrunner for my #1 film of the year based on its trailer and reviews. I think I may be more excited for it than "Hateful Eight" or "Revenant."

    7. Great point about the Coens and "Bridge of Spies." We should have learned this from "Invincible" -- if they don't opt to direct, there should be a red flag.

    8. Mara is a total front runner for Supporting Actress. Supporting Actor is much tougher. "Youth" seems too obscure. In recent years, Supporting Actor has typically gone to extremely flashy roles or villains. Idris may be closer to a lead role, so I like Stuhlberg, Keaton, and maybe Del Toro. What about some more "Hateful Eight" actors? Tim Roth and Kurt Russell seem viable. And what about Christoph Waltz in "Spectre?"

    9. I see "Ex Machina" sneaking in for a screenplay nomination. Just sayin.

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    1. I tried to fit in one of the supporting ladies in "Trumbo", but that category is uncommonly stacked this year, especially if Vikander gets pushed supporting as reported.

      I have feared the same thing about "Beasts" since it was first announced that Netflix picked up distribution. The Academy has somewhat adapted its voting in the last decade or so, but an instant streaming release might be a bit too much, I agree. It might get nominated anyway just on merit if it is as good as it can be.

      The book that "Steve Jobs" is based on is the best one about him. The movie is three scenes long. It will probably be overdramatized, but that is what Sorkin does, and they worship the guy. I don't know...I would be shocked if it fails.

      I didn't predict "The Danish Girl" to win everything simply out of principle. I still don't understand how Tom Hooper won Best Director over Fincher. If he has two Oscars and Fincher has none, then...yeah who am I kidding. It is winning everything.

      I am right with you on "Sicario". It looks like a badass "Traffic"-type film or something. I only put Streep in there because you kinda have to. Maybe I should have predicted her in supporting for "Suffragette" instead of the Diablo Cody flick. I dunno. Maybe she will get like three Globe nods and no Oscar nods.

      The movie was called "Unbroken", not "Invincible", but yeah I know. Throw that bullshit film "Gambit" in there too.

      Mara vs Vikander is the hottest supporting actress race since 2008. It might also be the most heated race since...well... 2013.

      I would love to see Tim Roth finally get that second nomination. I just know nothing about the size of anyone's role in "Hateful Eight". Maybe "Youth" is too small, but that doesn't always seem to matter. It will be uncovered soon, and the festivals have given love to the actors. I really do have that feeling that Mark Rylance might just sweep everything. That is the major trend of Supporting Actor. One guy wins every award.

      Fingers crossed that you're right about "Ex Machina"...

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  2. I think you may need to consider Room a little bit more after it won the Audience Award at TIFF

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    1. Yeah if I were to redo this today, I would have given Room a bit more recognition. I think Larson is definitely getting nominated now.

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