BEST
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Gone Girl – Gillian Flynn – It is still the frontrunner,
withstanding pushes by much more Oscar-begging films. The box office and
reviews should keep it up there for the duration.
2. The Imitation Game – Graham Moore – It is a tight script and a
really interesting movie. This is the film’s best chance to land a significant
Oscar, but it still has some work to do. It needs to take the BAFTA to have a
shot.
3. Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson – Even though the movie is
totally weird and not typical awards stuff at all, PTA has a pass with the
Academy, even though they snubbed his The
Master script despite the screenplay leading to 3 acting noms.
4. The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten – The screenplay is
not the main achievement in the movie, but when you have a clear top 5 ranking
for the year, the nominations come flooding your way, which almost always
includes your writer getting swept in.
5. Whiplash – Damien Chazelle – The Sundance winner had a
razor-sharp screenplay and has constantly built steam since its big win last
January. The recent switch to Adapted (its rightful spot) might hurt its chances a tad, but Chazelle still sits in a strong position.
Others in contention
6. Still Alice – Richard Glatzer, Wash Westmoreland – This would
be a bit of a surprise, but with the performances and previous strong work by
the writers (2006 indie darling Quinceanera),
it appears that this movie can go nowhere but up.
7. Wild – Nick Hornby – The performances are getting all of the publicity for Wild. Hornby is a past nominee for An Education, which might help his cause, but how much did the screenplay do for this film, really?
7. Wild – Nick Hornby – The performances are getting all of the publicity for Wild. Hornby is a past nominee for An Education, which might help his cause, but how much did the screenplay do for this film, really?
8. American Sniper – James Dean Hall – The movie has yet to really
be seen yet, but its buzz is rising in all categories. Eastwood’s film could
pull a last minute shocker and get mentioned all over the Academy’s lineup.
9. Unbroken – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, William Nicholson, Richard
LaGravenese – I won’t quite give up on this movie yet. The Coens’ strangest
work A Serious Man even got its
screenplay nod, so even though this movie underwhelmed most, it still cannot be
forgotten.
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Birdman – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander
Dinelaris, Armando Bo – This is about the most competitive I have seen this
category in a long time. This movie is one of the main contenders for the top
prize, and the screenplay is really what sold it. Inarritu deserves an Oscar at
some point, and this has to be his best shot yet.
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness – The
indie record-breaker has sustained its buzz all the way into awards season,
which is really surprising. Anderson films are in the mix consistently, but not
since The Royal Tenenbaums has his
films felt like such a threat in so many categories.
3. Boyhood – Richard Linklater – It is a little weird having the
Best Picture frontrunner down at #3 for screenplay, but the other films were
just showier and more obvious screenplay achievements. I am not counting it
out, but it has a bit of an uphill climb, especially when Linklater probably
walks away with 2 wins anyway.
4. Mr. Turner – Mike Leigh – Leigh is always getting nominated.
Even Another Year came out of nowhere
at the last moment. It is getting in, but I couldn’t really tell you why
looking at what is being left out.
5. Nightcrawler – Dan Gilroy – This movie has been rising
furiously, and I have read about similarities to Crash with its timing and campaign. This seems like a script that
would normally get in without an issue, but Original Screenplay is incredibly
stacked this year.
Others in contention
6. Selma – Paul Webb – This seems like it would have been a
shoo-in a couple weeks ago, but it keeps getting ignored by the important
precursors. Maybe it really isn’t all that good after all.
7. Interstellar – Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan – It made a
boatload of money and had some really interesting ideas, and that is usually
enough for a screenplay nom. There were holes in the logic of the movie,
however, which may have become apparent to voters and cause them to leave Nolan
off for once.
8. Foxcatcher – E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman – The screenplay was
not really a showcase, but it did have a Capote-esque
vibe to it. It needs a big win or two to really get back in this particular
race.
9. A Most Violent Year – J.C. Chandor – The National Board of
Review winner seems to be sputtering down the stretch, but audiences really haven’t
seen it yet. Chandor is 2 for 2 with his films, and this appears to be his 3rd
hit, but its lack of serious buzz is a little disconcerting.
10. Locke – Steven Knight – If Locke
can be remembered somehow, then a screenplay nod is not out of the question. It
would be the prestige nomination, which has previously been given to Margin Call and The Messenger, two that were later proven to be amazing
out-of-nowhere noms by the Academy.
11. Dear White People – Justin Simien – This would be an In the Loop-type of nomination if it
were to get in. The satire is always something that plays well in this
category, and the movie did make some waves in indie markets.
BEST
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood – She is the clear
frontrunner and the heart of the movie. She has been under-the-radar her entire
film career and has really only garnered awards attention for her TV show Medium. It is about time she gets her
due.
2. Emma Stone – Birdman – She has been in and around
awards movies for a few years, and she finally has that part that got her
singled out. Well…kinda. The whole cast essentially was singled out.
3. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods – She is Meryl, and
she was in a movie. This is a no-brainer nomination, but the world just might
end if she wins.
4. Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year – She is
becoming a regular at the Oscars and rightfully so. She is one of the best
actresses working today, and she had 4 buzzed roles that she nailed in 2014.
5. Tilda Swinton – Snowpiercer – It would be a strange
nomination, but these are the types of roles that get recognized. The Critics
Choice nomination helps, and even though the movie was a bit of a flop, it has
still been cited consistently throughout the season.
Others in contention
6. Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game – She always
seems to be just on the outside looking in, and while this is her best work in
some 7 years, she still feels like a snub candidate.
7. Naomi Watts – St. Vincent / Birdman – She got the surprise SAG nom for the former, and the
latter is the major Oscar player. I wouldn’t be too shocked if either hit.
8. Carrie Coon – Gone Girl – How much do they love
the movie? I always thought she was one of the standouts, sort of this movie’s
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone). If the
movie has a real shot at the major awards, then she could be a beneficiary.
9. Laura Dern – Wild – Her buzz has quieted, as has
the buzz for the film. It still feels like a nomination-caliber role, though.
10. Kristen Stewart – Still Alice – If they want a running
partner for Julianne Moore, then why not one of the biggest names in Hollywood?
11. Rene Russo – Nightcrawler – She has never been
nominated, or even close for that matter, but her role in one of the most
talked about movies of 2014 has her right in the running for that first nom.
Annual
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
Shocker Nomination: Marisa Tomei – Love Is Strange
BEST
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. J.K. Simmons – Whiplash – It is hard to see a
scenario where he loses. It is a frightening, career-changing performance for
the veteran character actor.
2. Ethan Hawke – Boyhood – The 3-time nominee is
really the only challenge that Simmons may have. If they really love Boyhood, which they probably will, then
the truest character in the film will have a shot.
3. Edward Norton – Birdman – It appears that Norton
will finally stop his nomination drought with one of the most difficult roles
to play from 2014.
4. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher – He is a lock, as he
should be. His character was the most believable in the movie, and he became
the emotional core of the deeply emotional crime drama.
5. Robert Duvall – The Judge – He is really the only
one of the 5 that might be in jeopardy, even though he has gotten cited everywhere.
His movie was just so poor that the ground on which he stands seems a tad
unstable.
Others in contention
6. Takamasa Ishihara – Unbroken – The Academy loves their
real life ruthless villains, and the head of a WWII Japanese camp is about as
cold as you can get. He kills the role, and he could find himself with a
nomination if the movie breaks through.
7. Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice – He is the only one
other than the top 5 with a major nomination (Critics Choice, who nominate 6),
so he has to be in the mix.
8. Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes – His movie has no buzz,
except for Amy Adams. Can he pull another nomination? I wouldn’t put it past
him.
Annual
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
Shocker Nomination: John Goodman – The Gambler
BEST
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Julianne Moore – Still Alice – She appears to be
unstoppable at this point. It is about time she finally wins one.
2. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl – She appears to be the
Sharon Stone (Casino) of 2014. She
will go in with a shot to win, but she is up against an overdue performer who
probably cannot be denied.
3. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything – She is
the equivalent to what Reese Witherspoon was in 2005, the borderline supporting
co-lead who actually stole the show from the protagonist. She is probably the
best of the nominees, but she can’t win…can she?
4. Reese Witherspoon – Wild – She is beloved, yet she has
somehow not gotten her validation nomination yet. This is her chance.
5. Amy Adams – Big Eyes – She has been snubbed a
few times, but the Oscars love her too much. Her odds to get in are not great,
but there are always a couple pleasant surprises.
Others in contention
6. Jennifer Aniston – Cake – It would be heartbreaking for
Aniston if she gets left off, but that is what happens to performances like
these. At least we know she is serious about her movies now. Her nom will
come…and it still might be this year.
7. Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night – The Dardennes
have not been treated well by the Academy, but Cotillard is a transcendent
talent. I could see her going all the way to the ceremony.
8. Shailene Woodley – The Fault in Our Stars – She is a
budding talent, and her movie had a big time box office. Can she defy the odds
and take the young adult novel adaptation to the Oscars?
9. Scarlett Johansson – Under the Skin – The movie is
probably too out-there to get nominated for anything, but when is she going to
get her due? She is doing some of the best work in the industry right now.
Annual
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
Shocker Nomination: Hilary Swank – The Homesman
BEST
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Michael Keaton – Birdman – There really can’t be
another frontrunner at this point, but we will see once the televised awards shows
start happening. Can he really go from universally snubbed to easy winner?
2. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler – His crazy performance
is becoming more of a sure-fire nomination. Can he win the thing? There are few
actors who have come into their own as suddenly and clearly as Gyllenhaal in
the past few years.
3. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything – In terms
of physical performances, Redmayne’s ranks with some of the best I have seen in
a long time. He embodies Hawking and should coast to a nomination.
4. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game – He is certainly
on thinner ice than Redmayne, but it is hard to see a scenario where they snub
one of the most present actors in the business in such a baity role.
5. Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner – He is one of the most
loved actors around, yet he has never gotten the nod from any significant award
circuit. He finally has a role that he can be singled out for, and while this
would be a clear shock nom, well, there is always one.
Others in contention
6. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher – He gets completely lost
in his character, but the buzz for the film has really gone silent. His
performance is more supporting anyway, but he is still right there in that
second tier.
7. David Oyelowo – Selma – I find it hard to predict
him anywhere but in the running for the win, but maybe there is already
backlash to the film that hasn’t even gotten its theatrical run yet in the
States.
8. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper – He is going to be
in and around the Oscars for a long time, and this is yet another strong effort
that could wind up leading to a nom.
9. Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice – Depending on how the
movie is received, he could become a lock or a joke for even considering him.
10. Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel – Even I,
who liked the movie a decent amount, would consider this nomination to be a bit
loony, but he was really funny. The 2-time nominee hasn’t been invited back
since 1996.
11. Miles Teller – Whiplash – The best performance of
the year is getting widely ignored by the major awards. When is he going to get
recognized for what he is, the best actor of his generation?
12. Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year – His movie
needs to be amazing for him to get in…but then again, that didn’t do much for
him with Inside Llewyn Davis last
year.
Annual
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
Shocker Nomination: Chadwick Boseman – Get On Up
BEST
DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Richard Linklater – Boyhood – He is the architect of one
of the most beautiful movies to come out in a long time. Any other director
winning would be a bit of a tragedy.
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu –
Birdman – He has a much more
obvious directing contribution, but camera work isn’t everything. If he is the
one to take down Linklater, I could maybe handle that.
3. David Fincher – Gone Girl – He is going to be the
next Scorsese and maybe not win one for way too long. He is maybe the most
consistent director in the world, and his movie was a real stunner.
4. Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel – He has
had a lot of screenplay contenders, but this is his first real contender in
this category. Does the whole Academy love him as much as his writing peers?
5. James Marsh – The Theory of Everything – The past
winner for Man on Wire had a really
great directing achievement in this movie, and between Marsh and Tyldum, I need
to side with the slightly more recognizable name.
Others in contention
6. Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game – His movie still
has the potential to get the British vote over The Theory of Everything. I cannot see both making it into this
competitive category, but they are going to battle it out for one of the spots.
7. Ava DuVernay – Selma – The Academy loves narratives
like giving out the first female black directing nomination, but the snubs for
the movie are getting more concerning.
8. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher – The Cannes winner and
Oscar darling has really got to show us something with the wide release of the
film coming up.
9. J.C. Chandor – A Most Violent Year – He has had 3
films that were all opposites in styles of each other, and the first 2 were
minor Oscar hits. Can his most polished movie give him his deserved directing
nom?
10. Damien Chazelle – Whiplash – This would be a Benh
Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)-level
surprise nomination, but it would be deserved. His movie is steadily building
buzz.
11. Dan Gilroy – Nightcrawler – He hasn’t gotten a
whole lot of buzz, but his film has. If his film is really a threat the way
everyone predicts, then he needs to get in.
BEST
PICTURE
The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)
1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater) – The film that should win might
actually do just that for one of the rare times at the Oscars. It has sustained
buzz, withstood runs from other easier movies to take in, and risen up to win
everything that is important. It is the one to beat.
2. Gone Girl (David Fincher) – If this were to somehow take the
top prize, then it would be crazy. It is this year’s Fatal Attraction, in a way, but it also could be this year’s The Departed. It would be to a much
lesser extent, due to the weakness of the year overall, but it could be
somewhat of a default winner.
3. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) – The movie is a strange
case in the race, but it is clearly one of the few that has a real shot at
winning. It would be a bizarre choice. I have compared it to All About Eve on occasion, but it is
much too much of an oddball to be treated like that…right?
4. The Theory of Everything (James
Marsh) – The movie does not seem like a real threat to win the prize, but
it would be a little ridiculous if it weren’t mentioned in the top…whatever
number they come up with.
5. Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy) – Nightcrawler
is the only real wild card in the bunch. We don’t know what to think about it
necessarily, but it has a lot of things going for it. A Best Picture nomination
seems certain, and I am scratching my head as I am saying that.
6. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum) – This one has a bit of work
to do to get back into the real contender mix, but its subject matter and
straight-forward storytelling approach will sell well with the older voters.
7. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle) – It is one of the Sundance winners
that accomplished the miracle of staying relevant for 12 months. It is almost a
shoo-in, but shhh I don’t want to jinx it.
8. A Most Violent Year (J.C. Chandor) – The last time a National
Board of Review winner missed the Best Picture lineup was 2000 (Quills). I was skeptical last year with Her, but it ended up being a sort of
slam dunk. At this point, predicting this film is shaky, but I have faith.
9. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson) – His movie needs the 1st
place votes to get in, which I cannot really see happening, but apparently
people really loved it. I guess it is kind of a lock.
10. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood) – Eastwood’s second-best movie
of the year (no chance it’s as good as Jersey
Boys) has everything going for it. It hasn’t been released or shunned yet,
it has a bit of controversy, and it stars Bradley Cooper. It could easily slide
into the race upon more people seeing it.
Others in contention
11. Selma (Ava DuVernay) – Its PGA snub hurts its chances a lot,
but films can overcome that. It just is no longer a threat to win the thing.
12. Foxcatcher (Bennett Miller) – Miller’s previous films were
nominated, but they were more talked-about and relevant than Foxcatcher, a tortured mini-masterpiece
that was delayed and put through hell.
13. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie) – I will never fully understand how
this movie wasn’t more popular, but it still can get in. It has the release
date, subject, and pedigree to make a run, but it has an uphill climb.
14. Into the Woods (Rob Marshall) – How much does the Academy miss
having musicals in the race every year?
Booyah! Thoughts on these predictions? What do you think will take home
the top prizes? Let me know in the comments!
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