Reactions to the Nominations: 2013

First off, I loved the new announcement ceremony. It makes it more like a mini-production, rather than just a press conference. It gave a moment between categories, rather than just rattling them off and having to wait until the ticker at the bottom relays them to really process the nominations. Anyway, there are some random inclusions, as usual, but not a ton of shockers. This was made even more interesting by having it take place in front of all of the major awards shows. We still know nothing. I like that. Well, check out what the Academy decided to single out this year and my brief thoughts on it. Enjoy and happy awards season!

Best Picture
Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted: 7 for 9

Reactions: So, it appears even in a year such as this, where there are a clear five films that have stood above the rest throughout the precursors, there are still going to be 9 films nominated. I predicted 8 would be the number. 5% of first place votes seems very significant to me, but maybe it is this spread out every year. I predicted The Master and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel for the top 9, which were replaced by Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild. What this says to me is that Micheal Haneke might be the most popular foreign director in the world (first BP nom for a foreign film since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), and nearly every year will have that no-budget indie that will get taken all the way from Sundance to the “Big Dance”. This is not too bad of a lineup. It is much better than the train wreck of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and War Horse last year. It is a solid group for a solid, somewhat below average year overall.

Preliminary prediction: Silver Linings Playbook

Best Director

Michael Haneke – Amour

Ang Lee – Life of Pi

David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Wait a minute…what? Where’s Ben Affleck!? Really, Academy? Seriously? Come on. That movie screamed Oscar and was probably the most complex direction of the year. He is one of the best directors working right now, makes three home runs in a row, the third of which totally catered to your style, and you cannot nominate him, why? Because he’s Ben Affleck. The day after we see the Baseball Writers of America becoming the story in the sports world by not giving anyone access to the Hall of Fame and making what amounts to a political decision not to put a certain era of players into a baseball museum, the Oscar voters do something similar by deciding to snub the best director of the year just because he used to be a lousy actor and used to fill the tabloids with his love life and whatnot. Give me a break. What do you want the guy to do? Anyway… I digress. I predicted 3 correctly, missing Haneke and Zeitlin by predicting Affleck and Bigelow. I cannot believe that two of the stone cold locks of the season did not make it into the most important category, but hey it was a surprise right? Sure, but not in the category we like to see them in.

Preliminary Prediction: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

Denzel Washington – Flight

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I knew that last spot would come down to John Hawkes and Hugh Jackman. Jackman was average and one of the worst parts of Les Mis, but he was the lead in a movie the Academy loved. So I guess that is good enough for them. But not for Ben Affleck. I am surprised they didn’t give him the producing shaft and give 2 noms to Clooney instead. Here we have what appears like a one horse race, but I have a sneaky feeling that DDL might get a challenge from Phoenix. They clearly didn’t love The Master, but three acting noms is huge. They might want to give it one of them and not give Day-Lewis a third Oscar when he doesn’t really work all that often. Wishful thinking, maybe/probably…

Preliminary Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had former winners Rachel Weisz and Marion Cotillard in for Wallis and Riva. I love the fact that the oldest ever and youngest ever Best Actress nominees are in the same category. Wallis was terrific in her movie, and definitely deserved to be singled out, but judging by my predictions, I clearly did not think Beasts would be this popular. This category only has two contenders, and judging by the massive love for SLP, I gotta think it is going the way of the budding superstar.

Preliminary Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin – Argo

Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had it written where it was possible that Waltz could get in over DiCaprio. I almost expected it, but I went the other way. The Academy really went out of their way to not be predictable this year. They snubbed some of the biggest contenders in several categories. I have no problem with the group of former winners, though. It is by far the most wide open acting category in years. Which winner will they want to give a second Oscar to first? It won’t be Arkin, who received the throw-away nomination of the year with no chance of winning. Waltz was really a lead, so maybe they go that way? Hoffman gave one of the performances of the year and probably has the best chance of winning in his movie. Tommy Lee Jones has the critical favorite role in the leading nomination-getter. There is two-time winner Robert De Niro in the most popular film with actors. I feel that with all of the Academy members who look up to De Niro and want a comeback so badly that a win here would finally be their way of re-validating him. The Golden Globe snub is still confusing to me, but it happens sometimes.

Preliminary Prediction: Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Master

Sally Field – Lincoln

Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Helen Hunt – The Sessions

Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Well, I had Jacki Weaver on my longlist back in like July. After the precursors started and she didn’t show up anywhere, I knew it was over for her. It’s a random nomination, but a good one. She is a great character actress. I had Nicole Kidman getting that fifth spot. This award is going to Anne Hathaway, but that doesn’t matter. Can anyone name the last time we had a movie with nominees in all four acting categories?...anyone… That’s right, Reds. 1981. That is how unprecedented the love the Academy has for Weinstein…err…Silver Linings Playbook. That is an incredible achievement. This is a solid group of nominees, actually. And it is official…Amy Adams: the next Thelma Ritter. She is nominated for every remotely serious movie she does, yet never really comes close to winning. That has to change.

Preliminary Prediction: Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Original Screenplay

Amour – Michael Haneke

Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino

Flight – John Gatins

Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola

Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I always look for that random screenplay nomination (The Messenger, Margin Call, In Bruges) to tell me what indie is going to be one of the best movies of the year. The only oddball nom we got was freaking Flight. Horrible. I went against my better judgment and put The Master in the fifth spot. This is an interesting category. Amour seems to be this year’s Talk to Her. Zero Dark Thirty might not be as surefire a winner here like we thought, and Django might have a bit more backing than we thought. It is an interesting race here, but for now, I am going with the upset.

Preliminary Prediction: Amour – Michael Haneke

Adapted Screenplay

Argo – Chris Terrio

Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin

Life of Pi – David Magee

Lincoln – Tony Kushner

Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: It appears all is forgiven with David O. Russell. I guess they can’t do the same for Affleck. Ok, I will stop now. But seriously they probably would have snubbed his movie here if he had received a writing credit. Ok, really done now. Continuing the trend, I had Beasts out in favor of The Perks of Being a Wallflower, which I thought would have a big fan base, but I guess not. This one is over before it even starts.

Preliminary Prediction: Lincoln – Tony Kushner

Cinematography

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Zero Dark Thirty and The Master in and Anna Karenina and Django out. That is a great oddball choice by the Academy, though, putting Robert Richardson’s terrific work in this category. Too bad it was at the expense of The Master, one of the more impressive camera jobs in years. I can only hope that Roger Deakins takes this for his magnificent work on Skyfall, but it isn’t happening. There is a massive epic with CGI, you know... That has to win…

Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi

Art Direction Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: BOOM! My first/only perfect category, even if I can’t remember that they changed the name of it. Everything here is about normal. Costume dramas, more CGI, yawn…

Preliminary Prediction: Lincoln

Costume Design

Anna Karenina

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Mirror Mirror

Snow White and the Huntsman

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Cloud Atlas in for Snow White and the Huntsman. Two Snow White films in the same category? Nice. Neither of them are winning this.

Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables

Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had Zero Dark Thirty, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Avengers in and Lincoln, Argo, and Skyfall out. I forgot that this is a sneaky important category. Most winners are mentioned here. It is just crazy that Argo gets the shaft in Director, but it is everywhere else it needs to be.

Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables

Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Les Miserables in for SLP. So, if history is any indication, we officially have three films with a chance: Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Life of Pi. For the record, Ordinary People (1980) was the last to win Best Picture without an Editing nomination (that is probably what cost Brokeback Mountain the top prize), and no film since Driving Miss Daisy (1989) has won without a Directing nomination. Interesting developments.

Preliminary Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty

Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had The Dark Knight Rises (shut out, by the way), The Avengers, and Looper in for Argo, Django, and Zero Dark Thirty. Nothing really to comment on here. Life of Pi really is this year’s Hugo and Argo somehow pops up in an action movie category. Alright…

Preliminary Prediction: Skyfall

Visual Effects

The Avengers

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had John Carter and The Dark Knight Rises in for Prometheus and Snow White. This appears to be a competitive category, but recently this award seems to be going to contenders.

Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi

Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchcock

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Predicted: 1 for 3

Reactions: I had Looper and Men in Black 3 in for Hitchcock and The Hobbit. This is a very standard Oscar category. I guess I went with a couple underdog ones, since they do like to throw a Norbit or Click in there every once in a while.

Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables

Song

“Before My Time” – Chasing Ice

“Suddenly” – Les Miserables

“Pi’s Lullaby” – Life of Pi

“Skyfall” – Skyfall

“Everybody Needs a Friend” – Ted

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had the Paul Williams Still Alive, Brave, and Hunger Games songs in for Chasing Ice (what?), Life of Pi, and Ted. Second time in three years that the host is nominated at his ceremony. If I am not mistaken, I believe that a Bond film has never won in this category, so Oscar will find a way to screw this up too.

Preliminary Prediction: “Everybody Needs a Friend” – Ted

Score

Anna Karenina

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Master and Zero Dark Thirty in for Skyfall and Anna Karenina. Is it just me, or is Anna Karenina one of the most curiously underperforming movies this year? No real box office, tons of early buzz, four technical nominations. I am still trying to figure out what happened to Keira Knightley. Let’s see…Argo’s score is certainly this year’s Michael Clayton/The Hurt Locker, the one that we will just have to take the voters’ word for it because no one remembers it. Wow, they really hated The Master. Skyfall here? Awesome. I kinda wish we would have seen one major nom for it, the second best of all the Bond films, but oh well.

Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi

Documentary

5 Broken Cameras

The Gatekeepers

How to Survive a Plague

The Invisible War

Searching for Sugar Man

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had This is Not a Film and Ai Weiwei in for 5 Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers. I am not too familiar with any of these because none of them have really been widely released or publicized this year. This category is always a bit strange, anyway. I will just take a stab at a semi-upset.

Preliminary Prediction: The Invisible War

Foreign Language Film

Amour

War Witch

No

A Royal Affair

Kon-Tiki

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had The Intouchables in for A Royal Affair. I really thought that was the winner in this category. I never know what to think here. Sometimes the clear favorite (Pan’s Labyrinth, for instance) loses despite several nominations. Sometimes that movie (like last year’s An Education) was winning regardless. Sometimes that favorite (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) is not even submitted by its country for eligibility in this category. I am not sure whether they just love Amour that much and will give it whatever it can, or whether they will want it to really compete for the top awards and not hold it back. I just cannot go against it, though.

Preliminary Prediction: Amour

Animated Feature

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had From Up on Poppy Hill and Rise of the Guardians in for ParaNorman and The Pirates. This category is really wide open. I am not sure if they want Tim Burton to be a winner yet, but this would be a way to give him a back-handed award, rather than a Best Director. Eh…just for the hell of it, I am going with my heart.

Preliminary Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph

Overall predictions: 72/107; 67.29% (69.23% in 2012)

Without the last 5 categories: 57/82; 69.51% (73.17% in 2012)

On the Big 8 categories: 33/44; 75.00% (79.55% in 2012)

So, I was slightly down from last year, which was slightly down from the year before that. I attribute that to not seeing as many movies the last couple years. Plus, this year was just weird, especially for the top categories. No real off-the-wall Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah-esque shockers, but just some minor surprises. I can and will do better next year!

5 coolest first-time nominees:

(there is no way I can come up with 10 this year)

1. Seth MacFarlane

2. Adele

3. Bradley Cooper

4. Quvenzhane Wallis

5. Roman Coppola

10 worst snubs:

1. Ben Affleck for Best Director

2. The Master for Best Cinematography, Sound Mixing, and Best Original Score

3. Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Supporting Actor

4. Looper for Best Original Screenplay

5. The Hunger Games for Best Production Design

6. Kathryn Bigelow for Best Director (I am assuming)

7. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter for Best Visual Effects

8. The Perks of Being a Wallflower for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress (Emma Watson)

9. Matthew McConnaugey for Best Actor (Killer Joe) and Best Supporting Actor (Magic Mike)

10. Richard Gere for Best Actor (getting used to that…)

So, after a discussion with Terry, we came up with the best possible comparison of this year to a past year: 1998. The huge Spielberg production was the odds-on favorite (Saving Private Ryan/Lincoln). There is a beloved foreign film nominated for Best Picture, Director, Acting, Screenplay, etc. (Life if Beautiful/Amour). There is the misunderstood and unconventional military movie (The Thin Red Line/Zero Dark Thirty). There is the popular costume drama (Elizabeth/Les Miserables)…bit of a stretch on that one, I know. There is probably the best movie of the year that got major snubs come nomination morning (The Truman Show/Argo). The movie that is going to take the whole thing, however, is the dark horse comedy distributed by the Weinsteins (Shakespeare in Love/Silver Linings Playbook). They will still throw Spielberg his directing bone, but the crowd-pleaser is the movie that will somehow come out on top for Best Picture. It will be interesting to see how the next few days shape the race, with the Critics Choice Awards tonight and the Golden Globes in three days. I love this time of year!

Stay tuned for our Fifth Annual Oscar Challenge! What do you think of this year’s crop of nominees? Who are you predicting to win? Let me know in the comments.